1 thought on “[Shenzhen Stock Exchange Investment] What kind of industry is home appliance?”
Margarita
I. Industry development status
, like most export -oriented industries, early Chinese home appliances, with the advantages of labor costs, participated in the global industrial division of labor as foundry. Although the foundry is an important part from beginning to end, the real growth opportunities of the industry lies in the expansion of the domestic home appliance consumer market that follows. Essence Today, after about 30 years of rapid development, whether it is market size, industrial support, product technology, and consumption popularization, or corporate capabilities, my country's home appliance industry has entered a mature stage, and it has also become one of the few in my country that has more than that One of the industries that strengthen global competitiveness. rnrn（一）家电行业规模有多大rnrn根据奥维云网推总数据，2020年家电行业国内累计销售7056亿元（涉及彩电、白电、 Kitchen, bathroom, small home appliances and other categories). According to the retail sales data of units above the limit of units published by the National Bureau of Statistics, home appliances are second only to automobiles, grain, oil, food, clothing and oil and product categories, ranking fifth. From the perspective of sales, the sales volume of air -conditioning, refrigerators, washing machines and color TVs in 2020 was 80.28 million, 42.7 million, 42.93 million, and 48.17 million. Considering that the epidemic affected by the epidemic in 2020 and the terminal market extremely decentralized, statistical data inevitably underestimated. Under normal circumstances, the actual sales of the domestic appliance industry exceeded trillion or determined. It also maintains a stable growth trend.
(2) Leading and high market concentration
The home appliance industry is generally divided into four industries: white electricity, black electricity, kitchen appliances, and small appliances.其中，白电包括空调、冰箱及洗衣机，销售额约3269亿元，仅空调终端零售规模就超过1500亿元；黑电主要指彩电，销售规模约1209亿元；厨电主要指油烟机、燃气The scale of the stove and water heater is about 125.7 billion yuan; except for the above -mentioned single -column products, the remaining products are basically collected as small appliances with a scale of about 132.1 billion yuan. It is not difficult to see from the scale that Bai Electric is the pillar of the home appliance industry, and the air conditioner is the core of white electricity. Of course, the pillar status of Bai Electric is not only reflected in the scale, but its profitability is also leading the industry. In 2019, the three major Bai Electric lead companies Gree, Midea and Haier achieved a total of 52.7 billion yuan in net profit attributable to the owner of the parent company, accounting for about 86%of the entire home appliance sector. High -degree industry.
(3) The industry enters the maturity period, and the development trend is becoming more stable
although Chinese home appliances have entered the mature period, it does not mean that there is no room for growth. It is more stable and more certain. At the end of 2019, the number of households in my country's urban air conditioners, refrigerators, washing machines and color TVs was 148.3, 102.5, 99.2, and 122.8. 117.6, considering that the refrigerators, washing machines and color TVs are mostly "one household, one machine", these three types of products have basically achieved popularity; and air conditioners have the "one household and multi -machine" attribute, which can be targeting the current Japan and Taiwan, China. There are about 280 and 240 units of air -conditioning hundreds of households, and there is still room for popularity of air conditioners and kitchen appliances. Optional categories of home appliances such as kitchen quality small appliances, environmental cleaning appliances, and intelligent micro -casting, currently the penetration rate is still less than 10%, and is in the rapid development stage.
Is when analyzing downstream consumption requirements for home appliances, we can divide it into two categories: new demand and update demand. Among them, the new demand comes from two aspects. On the one hand, it can predict the demand for future preservation through the existing preservation and population scale. On the other hand, it can be estimated to be estimated to be decorated in the decoration of new houses through the scale of commercial housing. Update the transition rate and product optimization and upgrade. At present, the process of urbanization in my country continues to advance, and the total retail sales of social consumer goods still maintain a rapid growth rate. In the future, there is still room for further improvement to ensure the steady growth of home appliances. In addition, when analyzing the downstream consumer demand of the optional category of home appliances, changes in crowd structure, consumption capacity, and consumption habits need to be combined. It has a greater impact on the development of technology, tide cute, and creative products.
(4) Looking at the home appliance industry from the perspective of investment
From the perspective of investment, the ROE (deduction non -diluted) of the home appliance sector is slightly over 14%, in the first -level industry The ranking is high; the cash flow performance of major companies is excellent, the dividend rate is maintained at a high level (basically above 30%), and the scale of cash dividends is large; in addition, the share repurchase of leading companies is gradually normalized. On the whole, home appliances can be said to be a sector that takes into account value and growth.
. The profit model and features
(1) Both industrial product attributes and consumer goods attributes n The business model is the same as most industries with physical products as the carrier. It is a product that provides consumer purchases to earn the difference in supply and marketing, that is, profits. However, the integration of my country's home appliance industry chain is high. The entire machine manufacturer is not only a product manufacturer, but also a supplier of core components. It is also the main channel controller. Therefore, my country's home appliance industry also shows a quite unique side: at the same time, it has the attributes of industrial finished products and consumer goods, and the attributes of consumer goods are even more.
(2) The concentration of the faucet continues to increase
Considering that popular home appliances have a certain manufacturing threshold, low technical barriers, and slower core technology iterative speed, The supply side rarely becomes a factor in continuous industry operations. The industrial product attributes are mainly reflected in the economies of scale and high concentration. Once the competitive pattern is formed, the Matthew effect will continue to appear. At present, the CR5 of the CR5 of air conditioners, refrigerators, washing machines, color TVs, kitchen appliances and major appliances (total market share of the top five companies) is as high as about 89%, 70%, 79%, 58%, 57%, and 80%. It is better than the industry average, and the concentration of the faucet continues to increase.
(3) Pay attention to channels
The consumer attributes are more important industrial characteristics of the home appliance industry. For home appliance companies, if manufacturing does not constitute a bottleneck, sales will become the primary problem It is especially important to focus on demand, brand and channels. For a market that is in a rapid development stage and highly decentralized, channels help manufacturers to obtain an incremental market, and it is also a way to timely feedback the changes in the needs of the terminal. The research and judgment of business trends is an important consideration.
(4) Exploring incremental
With the maturity of my country's home appliance industry, the discovery of new growth points has gradually become a strategic service. In the long run, there are two main channels, one is the growth of product structure upgrade. For consumers, since it is updated and upgraded, it is logical to require better products and better brands. few. The second way is to open up overseas markets. In the early days, the Chinese home appliance industry was mainly foundry. It was a light car to go to the sea. However, in the long run, it is still necessary to seek independent brand exports, that is, the status of China's home appliances on the global industrial chain has improved. The coexistence of risks and opportunities is time to explore the local market consumption habits and business models, and competition with local brands also requires sufficient capabilities. However, in 2020, the emergence of the epidemic indirectly accelerated the pace of Chinese home appliance brands. China ’s home appliances have a relatively advantage in product intelligence and marketing digitalization, and it has gradually entered the fast lane. In addition, the impact of exchange rates on operating results is also particularly important. In the early days, the export business has fewer exchange rate fluctuations. However, after the market -oriented reform of exchange rates, the impact of exchange rate fluctuations on the company's financial statements is also required under the background of the increase in overseas business proportion. focus on.
I. Industry development status
, like most export -oriented industries, early Chinese home appliances, with the advantages of labor costs, participated in the global industrial division of labor as foundry. Although the foundry is an important part from beginning to end, the real growth opportunities of the industry lies in the expansion of the domestic home appliance consumer market that follows. Essence Today, after about 30 years of rapid development, whether it is market size, industrial support, product technology, and consumption popularization, or corporate capabilities, my country's home appliance industry has entered a mature stage, and it has also become one of the few in my country that has more than that One of the industries that strengthen global competitiveness. rnrn（一）家电行业规模有多大rnrn根据奥维云网推总数据，2020年家电行业国内累计销售7056亿元（涉及彩电、白电、 Kitchen, bathroom, small home appliances and other categories). According to the retail sales data of units above the limit of units published by the National Bureau of Statistics, home appliances are second only to automobiles, grain, oil, food, clothing and oil and product categories, ranking fifth. From the perspective of sales, the sales volume of air -conditioning, refrigerators, washing machines and color TVs in 2020 was 80.28 million, 42.7 million, 42.93 million, and 48.17 million. Considering that the epidemic affected by the epidemic in 2020 and the terminal market extremely decentralized, statistical data inevitably underestimated. Under normal circumstances, the actual sales of the domestic appliance industry exceeded trillion or determined. It also maintains a stable growth trend.
(2) Leading and high market concentration
The home appliance industry is generally divided into four industries: white electricity, black electricity, kitchen appliances, and small appliances.其中，白电包括空调、冰箱及洗衣机，销售额约3269亿元，仅空调终端零售规模就超过1500亿元；黑电主要指彩电，销售规模约1209亿元；厨电主要指油烟机、燃气The scale of the stove and water heater is about 125.7 billion yuan; except for the above -mentioned single -column products, the remaining products are basically collected as small appliances with a scale of about 132.1 billion yuan. It is not difficult to see from the scale that Bai Electric is the pillar of the home appliance industry, and the air conditioner is the core of white electricity. Of course, the pillar status of Bai Electric is not only reflected in the scale, but its profitability is also leading the industry. In 2019, the three major Bai Electric lead companies Gree, Midea and Haier achieved a total of 52.7 billion yuan in net profit attributable to the owner of the parent company, accounting for about 86%of the entire home appliance sector. High -degree industry.
(3) The industry enters the maturity period, and the development trend is becoming more stable
although Chinese home appliances have entered the mature period, it does not mean that there is no room for growth. It is more stable and more certain. At the end of 2019, the number of households in my country's urban air conditioners, refrigerators, washing machines and color TVs was 148.3, 102.5, 99.2, and 122.8. 117.6, considering that the refrigerators, washing machines and color TVs are mostly "one household, one machine", these three types of products have basically achieved popularity; and air conditioners have the "one household and multi -machine" attribute, which can be targeting the current Japan and Taiwan, China. There are about 280 and 240 units of air -conditioning hundreds of households, and there is still room for popularity of air conditioners and kitchen appliances. Optional categories of home appliances such as kitchen quality small appliances, environmental cleaning appliances, and intelligent micro -casting, currently the penetration rate is still less than 10%, and is in the rapid development stage.
Is when analyzing downstream consumption requirements for home appliances, we can divide it into two categories: new demand and update demand. Among them, the new demand comes from two aspects. On the one hand, it can predict the demand for future preservation through the existing preservation and population scale. On the other hand, it can be estimated to be estimated to be decorated in the decoration of new houses through the scale of commercial housing. Update the transition rate and product optimization and upgrade. At present, the process of urbanization in my country continues to advance, and the total retail sales of social consumer goods still maintain a rapid growth rate. In the future, there is still room for further improvement to ensure the steady growth of home appliances. In addition, when analyzing the downstream consumer demand of the optional category of home appliances, changes in crowd structure, consumption capacity, and consumption habits need to be combined. It has a greater impact on the development of technology, tide cute, and creative products.
(4) Looking at the home appliance industry from the perspective of investment
From the perspective of investment, the ROE (deduction non -diluted) of the home appliance sector is slightly over 14%, in the first -level industry The ranking is high; the cash flow performance of major companies is excellent, the dividend rate is maintained at a high level (basically above 30%), and the scale of cash dividends is large; in addition, the share repurchase of leading companies is gradually normalized. On the whole, home appliances can be said to be a sector that takes into account value and growth.
. The profit model and features
(1) Both industrial product attributes and consumer goods attributes
n The business model is the same as most industries with physical products as the carrier. It is a product that provides consumer purchases to earn the difference in supply and marketing, that is, profits. However, the integration of my country's home appliance industry chain is high. The entire machine manufacturer is not only a product manufacturer, but also a supplier of core components. It is also the main channel controller. Therefore, my country's home appliance industry also shows a quite unique side: at the same time, it has the attributes of industrial finished products and consumer goods, and the attributes of consumer goods are even more.
(2) The concentration of the faucet continues to increase
Considering that popular home appliances have a certain manufacturing threshold, low technical barriers, and slower core technology iterative speed, The supply side rarely becomes a factor in continuous industry operations. The industrial product attributes are mainly reflected in the economies of scale and high concentration. Once the competitive pattern is formed, the Matthew effect will continue to appear. At present, the CR5 of the CR5 of air conditioners, refrigerators, washing machines, color TVs, kitchen appliances and major appliances (total market share of the top five companies) is as high as about 89%, 70%, 79%, 58%, 57%, and 80%. It is better than the industry average, and the concentration of the faucet continues to increase.
(3) Pay attention to channels
The consumer attributes are more important industrial characteristics of the home appliance industry. For home appliance companies, if manufacturing does not constitute a bottleneck, sales will become the primary problem It is especially important to focus on demand, brand and channels. For a market that is in a rapid development stage and highly decentralized, channels help manufacturers to obtain an incremental market, and it is also a way to timely feedback the changes in the needs of the terminal. The research and judgment of business trends is an important consideration.
(4) Exploring incremental
With the maturity of my country's home appliance industry, the discovery of new growth points has gradually become a strategic service. In the long run, there are two main channels, one is the growth of product structure upgrade. For consumers, since it is updated and upgraded, it is logical to require better products and better brands. few. The second way is to open up overseas markets. In the early days, the Chinese home appliance industry was mainly foundry. It was a light car to go to the sea. However, in the long run, it is still necessary to seek independent brand exports, that is, the status of China's home appliances on the global industrial chain has improved. The coexistence of risks and opportunities is time to explore the local market consumption habits and business models, and competition with local brands also requires sufficient capabilities. However, in 2020, the emergence of the epidemic indirectly accelerated the pace of Chinese home appliance brands. China ’s home appliances have a relatively advantage in product intelligence and marketing digitalization, and it has gradually entered the fast lane. In addition, the impact of exchange rates on operating results is also particularly important. In the early days, the export business has fewer exchange rate fluctuations. However, after the market -oriented reform of exchange rates, the impact of exchange rate fluctuations on the company's financial statements is also required under the background of the increase in overseas business proportion. focus on.